NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – In the United States, the U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year on Monday, following a period of four consecutive years of gains. According to analysis by Truist, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% since its bear-market low on October 12, 2022. That session marked the index’s lowest close since November 2020, ending at 3,577.03. By Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise in 2026, and it gained 1.2% during the most recent week.
This run marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s within the historical record, and it is also the seventh to last at least four years. Its 119% increase falls short of the 184% average gain seen across the bull markets examined in the study. The cycle from 2009 to 2020 saw a rise of 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 period experienced a 582% growth. These earlier phases remain among the most substantial long-term gains in the comparison.
Historical performance during a fifth year has generally remained positive, although results have varied among individual cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year anniversaries. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Past data also shows an average maximum drawdown of around 14% during fifth years. It is important to note that these figures are based on previous market cycles and do not predict the current market’s future trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support Market Progress
Earnings from companies continue to be a key driver of the ongoing market rally. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings were up 29.6% compared to the same period last year as of October 9. This marks the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth estimate was 29.2% at the end of September. Of 19 index companies that have reported earnings, 84% surpassed analysts’ average estimates, with combined earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Analysts forecast robust profit growth continuing through the end of 2026, with fourth-quarter earnings expected to increase by 27.6% year-over-year. Full-year earnings growth is projected at 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates stem from semiconductor and hardware firms. According to Barclays research, these companies account for roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, underscoring the significant influence of technology-related sectors on current earnings adjustments.
Rising Rates Mark Fifth Year of Market Gains
The ongoing rally is occurring alongside higher interest rates and elevated yields on U.S. government bonds. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Officials indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, even as inflation remained high. The September projections showed a median economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2026, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. Despite the higher yields, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% that session, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%. U.S. equities enter this milestone year near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.
}’}key: sup87f7rr38}n